Fighting in DR Congo–Set to Boil Over

As of last Sunday, the UN reported 700 dead from the conflict between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Rwandan-backed M23. While fighting in the DR Congo is not new—and can be traced back to the Rwandan Genocide in 1994—the recent events have brought this conflict to its boiling point. M23, the Rwandan-backed militant group, has now captured Goma, a mineral-rich city and capital of the North Kivu province in the eastern DRC. Beginning February 4, a unilateral ceasefire is in place due to the humanitarian crisis; however, M23 still remains in control of Goma. The group recently began to move towards Bukavu, the capital of the South Kivu province, but have publicly stated that they do not intend to capture it.

M23, the militant group backed by Rwanda, are led by ethnic Tutsis and have stated the reason for their violence is to fight for minority rights that are under threat from the Congolese government. The DR Congo’s government has pushed back on this, arguing that the M23 are instead motivated by a desire to capitalize on the wealth of the mineral-rich eastern region, which contains copper, gold, and cobalt, coveted components of parts found in mobile phones, solar panels, and other widely-used electronics.

Despite M23’s adamant claims, evidence shows that the group has been weaponizing the plight of Tutsis to justify their actions. This is indicated by the inconsistencies with the group’s public statements and corresponding actions. Additionally Rwanda, who largely supports the insurgency, continues to benefit from M23’s growing encroachment into the eastern DRC. Rwanda’s support of M23 lends them increased access to minerals in eastern DRC, as evidenced by the 50% increase of coltan exports in 2022-2023. Regardless of M23’s or the Rwandan government’s apparent dishonesty, the fighting has resulted in a major humanitarian crisis; more than 7 million displaced people, over 300 thousand suspected cholera cases (as of January 2023), and 15.4 million children in need of humanitarian aid (as of 2023). Prior to the recent escalation, the humanitarian situation was already at a crisis level, but now it has only intensified. The UN has sounded the alarm on three major issues to focus on in the conflict: scarcity of food and water, mass displacement, and mass increase of sexual-based violence. As M23 gets closer to the Bukavu, which holds a population of two million people, these issues will only worsen. 

Several attempts at peace deals have failed in the past. Last year, a ceasefire deal was struck, but peace only held temporarily before fighting resumed again. This has been a recurring pattern, happening earlier on March 23, 2009 when M23 claimed that the terms of the most recent peace deal had been violated. This move signaled the resumption of conflict and served as the origin of the rebel group's name. Additionally, the UN has kept a peacekeeping mission, Monusco, in the DR Congo since 1999; however, their presence, no matter how well intentioned, may be escalating tensions, as many Congolese see Monusco as unsuccessful and have voiced a desire for them to leave. On January 31, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) gathered for an emergency summit in Harare, Zimbabwe which will hopefully bear some fruit.

M23 and the government of the DR Congo seem unwilling to cooperate or to engage in dialogue, and the permeating sense of distrust that has stalled attempts for peace in the past threatens possibilities for reconciliation. Beginning February 4, there has been a humanitarian ceasefire, allowing people to have a safe passage to escape the conflict and increased humanitarian aid; however, this action does not necessitate an end to this conflict. Leaders across Africa and the UN will need to put pressure on Rwanda, potentially in the form of sanctions, to withdraw their support from M23 in addition to the ongoing diplomatic discussions.  The international community has their work cut out from them as they search for ways to incentivise both parties to move towards peace. At the very least, the summit on Saturday in Tanzania, an unparalleled event, shows that much of the international community is at least willing to work towards peace.

Sudan Conflict: Attack on Last Functioning Hospital in North Darfur Kills 70

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On January 24, 2025, a drone attack targeting the Saudi Teaching Maternal Hospital in El Fasher, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur region, resulted in over 70 fatalities and wounded dozens more. The hospital was the only operational healthcare facility in the area, providing essential services like gy-obstetrics, internal medicine, surgery, and pediatrics.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) condemned the attack, emphasizing the critical role the hospital plays in the region. WHO’s Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, called for an immediate cessation of all attacks on healthcare facilities in Sudan and urged for unrestricted access to restore the damage to medical centres.

The attack on the Saudi Teaching Maternal Hospital marks the latest strike in Sudan’s 20-month civil war between the Sudanese government and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The attack was blamed on the paramilitary group by local authorities, which was said to be caused by the apparent battlefield losses to the Sudanese military and allies. The RSF, however, denied those claims, alleging that the Sudanese military was behind the attack, though they provided no evidence to support the accusation.

This incident is only a small part of the continued escalating conflict in Sudan, which has led to tens of thousands of deaths, the displacement of 12 million Sudanese civilians, and widespread famine in the region. The attack magnifies the ongoing healthcare crisis in Sudan, with two out of three people lacking access to healthcare and one in three people facing severe hunger. As the civil war continues to grow, ethnically driven violence has been on the rise, with some international watchdogs arguing that some acts committed by the RSF are escalating into acts of ethnic cleansing and genocide. If the crisis continues to draw on, it risks spiralling Sudan into state failure, stifling prospects for a successful post-conflict recovery. Furthermore, if the country continues to be vastly divided into two– with the Sudanese army having control of the East and the RSF in the West–the probability of Sudan once again splitting into two countries will become higher. As the conflict escalates, it remains unknown whether the international community will interfere or let it worsen–only time will tell.

Putin and Touadéra Hold Discussions on Increasing Bilateral Cooperation

Sergei Chirikov/Reuters

On January 15, 2025, President Fuastin-Archange Touadéra of the Central African Republic (CAR) arrived in Moscow for a three-day official visit aimed at improving bilateral relations with Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Specifically, the states focused on deepening their ties in the realms of military cooperation and political cooperation.

Russia has played a key role in CAR’s security framework since 2018, providing military training and logistical support. During the meeting, both leaders discussed expanding bilateral military cooperation, specifically to focus on enhancing CAR’s defense capabilities amidst ongoing security challenges. Putin emphasized Russia’s commitment to supporting CAR’s sovereignty and stability, offering security support to embattled leaders as they battle with warring rebel factions.

Touadéra and Putin also reviewed economic and political agreements aimed at strengthening CAR’s infrastructure and governance. The Central African leader expressed gratitude for Russia’s assistance in addressing internal conflicts and promoting development. Both parties reaffirmed their commitment to deepening ties beyond military collaboration.

Russia’s involvement in CAR includes the mercenaries from the Wagner Group, whose military contractors have played a large role in supporting CAR’s government forces. Despite the scrutiny they have faced from the international community, the group remains influential in maintaining stability in CAR. By training thousands of local forces, the group has put the rebels on the retreat, turning the tide of CAR’s civil war. In doing so, they’ve gained support in the state, as seen by the unveiling of a bronze monument glorifying the late head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The bilateral talks between President Touadéra and President Putin signify a growing partnership between the two nations outside of military cooperation. While details of future agreements remain confidential, the discussions highlight Russia’s increasing influence in CAR and the African continent. As Russia’s war with Ukraine rages on, they may expand this agreement to make use of CAR troops in the conflict, further diversifying their army (as they’ve already done with North Korean troops). If Putin continues to strengthen his foothold in the region, he may embolden the continent’s authoritarian leaders, further straying Africa from democracy.

West Africa: ECOWAS holds “extraordinary” security council session

Written by: Chloe Baldauf; Edited by: Luke Wagner

Yesterday, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) held an “extraordinary ministerial session” to address the announced withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the long-standing regional bloc. President of the ECOWAS Commission H.E. Dr. Omar Alieu Touray, pleading for the group’s cohesion, asserted that “if there has ever been any time for ECOWAS to stay together, this is the time.”

During the meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, the Head of the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel H.E. Leonardo Santos Simao emphasized the need for “a patient dialogue which is not obsessed to reach its end but to create space and enough time to continue to build a common future.” But Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are not interested in waiting any longer.

On Sunday, the three states announced their immediate exit from the regional union through their national television channels. ECOWAS was formally notified of the three junta-led countries’ decision on Monday through written notices. The joint statement accused ECOWAS of being “under the influence of foreign powers” and “[moving] away from the ideals of its founding fathers and Pan-Africanism.”

This departure follows ECOWAS’s ongoing policy of trade and economic sanctions against the junta-led countries that had undergone significant regime change due to military coups. This past November, the three departing nations formed a new security alliance called the Alliance of the Sahel States that Niger’s junta leader General Abdourahmane Tchiani described as a “path for sovereignty” for the countries.

On Wednesday, Mali announced that it would not abide by the ECOWAS treaty’s one-year withdrawal notice. Mali’s foreign ministry wrote in an online statement that, because ECOWAS’s sanctions violated its own treaty, “Mali is no longer bound by the deadline constraints mentioned in Article 91 of the Revised Treaty.”

Amid an increasingly tense election crisis in Senegal and dwindling public trust in ECOWAS, the regional group of nearly fifty years faces an uncertain future. Concerns fester over how the split will affect Russia’s deepening military ties with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger and the increased deployment of Russian Wagner Group troops in the region.

Chad: Putin’s Bid for Educational Diplomacy in Africa

Written by: Chloe Baldauf; Edited by: Luke Wagner

On Wednesday, Chad’s interim leader General Mahamat Idriss Deby met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin to discuss growing Russian-Chadian relations. During the talks, General Deby called the visit “history-making” and expressed his hopes to strengthen bilateral ties. 

In a transcript from the Kremlin website, Putin addressed the growth of “humanitarian ties” between the two countries, remarking that Moscow “doubled the quota” for Chadian students to study in Russia on scholarship and that he intends to double it again. Putin next spoke of growing interest in Russian education among young Chadians and affirmed Moscow’s intent to cooperate on the growth of educational opportunities.  

Educational diplomacy is commonly understood as a type of “soft diplomacy” that “builds mutually beneficial and reciprocal relationships between countries.” Russia has placed increasing emphasis on strengthening humanitarian ties through investment in Africa, which was a central topic at last year’s Russia-Africa Summit. 

At the last year’s summit, Putin declared his intent to “significantly increase” the number of African students in Russian higher education institutions. Specifically, he proposed building ties between sports universities and encouraging more student exchange. Putin also commented during the summit that Moscow sought deeper cooperation with Africa in the field of mass communications – starting with “the exchange of content [and] organization of training courses for media personnel and students.”  

Educational diplomacy in Africa has become an issue of significance in the diplomatic sphere recently. Luke Williams, Australia’s high commissioner, called education exchange “the bedrock” of Australia’s relations with Africa.  

As tensions brew in Chad over the legitimacy of current leader Deby’s interim presidency, it is unclear how growing Russian interest in Chad’s education sector will affect voter attitudes. If Deby manages to emerge victorious from the October election, it is likely that Russia will continue efforts to gain influence in the country as it strives toward great-power status at the expense of destabilization. 

Sierra Leone: Former President Koroma leaves country amid treason charges

Written by Chloe Baldauf; Edited by Luke Wagner

On Wednesday, the High Court of Sierra Leone approved ex-president Ernest Bai Koroma’s request for international travel to Nigeria due to un-specified medical reasons. The seventy-year-old president, who has been charged with four criminal offenses after allegedly conspiring to takedown the government during a failed coup attempt in November, has now been permitted to break his ongoing house-arrest to seek treatment.  

This development in Koroma’s trial comes less than two months after the failed coup attempt that took place on November 26, 2023. With tensions rising across the country—particularly in Freetown—since current president Julius Maada Bio’s reelection in June 2023, the incident was defined as an attempt to “overthrow a democratically elected government” by Information Minister Chernor Bah.  

President Bio announced that, although most of the individuals involved with the attempted coup had been arrested, the government aimed to prosecute all remaining coup-leaders. Earlier this month, Koroma was officially charged with treason for his alleged involvement in the November coup. 

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional bloc that seeks to “promote economic integration,” has encouraged President Bio to approve Koroma’s departure to Nigeria.  

According to a Tuesday statement by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional bloc that seeks to “promote economic integration,” the Nigerian government offered to temporarily host Koroma amid the pending trial. ECOWAS has encouraged President Bio to approve Koroma’s departure to Nigeria.  

Now, amid Koroma’s unspecified medical issues, the High Court has approved Koroma’s departure from the country. The swift change to Koroma’s travel abilities means the ex-president can stay in Nigeria for up to three months before coming back to Sierra Leone for the pending case in early March.  

On Thursday, President Bio addressed concerns that the charging of Koroma would fracture Sierra Leone’s political landscape by clarifying that Koroma’s trial is not intended to be a “political witch hunt” but rather “one aimed at unraveling the truth behind the events of November 26th, 2023.” If charged to the fullest extent of Sierra Leone’s criminal law, Koroma could face life in prison. 

Today, Koroma departed from Freetown, Sierra Leone on a Nigerian plane.