A handout picture released by the Lebanese presidency shows Lebanon's newly formed cabinet, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (center-right), posing for a group photo,along with President Joseph Aoun (center), Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (center-left) and cabinet members at the presidential palace, on February 11, 2025. (Lebanese Presidency / AFP)
Since the start of 2025, the government of Lebanon has undergone a significant political shift away from Hezbollah. Within the first two months of the year, Lebanon has appointed a president, ousted the Hezbollah-backed prime minister, and established the first full cabinet in over two years. The president’s appointment marks the end of a parliamentary deadlock that started in October 2022, while the new cabinet is the first one since 2008 that Hezbollah’s party does not have a majority in.
This new government is the latest in a series of political developments in Lebanon that indicate a shift in power away from Hezbollah. On January 9, after two rounds of parliamentary voting and robust U.S. and Saudi support, Joseph Aoun was elected to the Lebanese presidency, ending a years-long presidential vacuum. In addition to being close to Washington and Riyadh, Aoun has been vocal about his displeasure with the way the Hezbollah-backed caretaker cabinet handled the Lebanese economic crisis.
Aoun’s election is not the only political blow Hezbollah has taken recently. On the 13th of January, two-thirds of the Lebanese Parliament voted to elect former ICJ president Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister. This further weakened Hezbollah’s influence in the state, as Salam’s appointment replaced Hezbollah-backed Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
The new Lebanese cabinet follows this trend. On February 8, after three weeks of political negotiations between Lebanon’s rival political parties, Aoun announced he had accepted the resignation of the caretaker cabinet and signed a decree with Salam forming a new cabinet. When addressing the press, Salam said that the twenty-four member cabinet would focus on reconstruction, ending Lebanon’s six-year-long economic crisis, and implementing UN Resolution 1701. The resolution, commonly called the “linchpin of peace” in the region, calls for a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and the creation of the Blue Line–a “line of withdrawal” operated by ten thousand UN peacekeepers. Salam also said that the new cabinet would prioritize the enforcement of a 2024 ceasefire deal that aims to end the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel on Lebanon’s southern border by the 18th of February.
These political developments do not mean that Hezbollah has been completely expelled from Lebanon’s government. In fact, during the three-week negotiation process, Hezbollah engaged in negotiations with Salam over who would hold the Shi’ite Muslim seats in the cabinet. At the end of negotiations, Hezbollah’s political ally, the Amal movement—led by Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri—was able to choose four of the cabinet members, including the new minister of finance, and give its approval for a fifth.
While this influence was enough for the U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East to speak out against Hezbollah's role in the cabinet, the group’s influence has still significantly diminished. Most decisions in the Lebanese cabinet need a two-thirds majority to pass, and Hezbollah does not occupy the necessary number of seats to have a “blocking third”—meaning a third plus one—in the cabinet. The lack of a blocking third means that Aoun, Salam, and Lebanon’s cabinet will be able to pass legislation without Hezbollah’s support.
The past sixteen months have greatly weakened Hezbollah's strength. From Israeli warfare killing their top officials, to the overthrow of Assad’s regime in Syria, and now with the recent political losses, the group’s regional presence is on the retreat. Hezbollah’s influence in the region is still present,but with a new Lebanese cabinet focused on reform and building stability, the group may face increasing difficulty as they try to re-establish their control.