Ahmed al-Sharaa; Credit: Aref Tammawi—AFP/Getty Images
On January 29, 2025, Ahmed al-Sharaa declared himself interim president of Syria for the duration of the government's transitional phase. His formal declaration as president comes as no surprise, as he has been the de facto leader of the country since Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a military coup and ousted Bashar al-Assad, bringing an end to the Assad dynasty’s 50-year long rule.
HTS, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, was founded under the leadership of Sharaa, under the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, in 2011 as an affiliate of al-Qaeda. However, in 2016, al-Jolani broke ties with al-Qaeda and a year later, merged with other groups to establish HTS to defeat the Assad regime.
Understanding the fall of the Assad state, despite their historic grip on power, we can look at two factors. First, the power of the Syrian state has been eroded by years of war, sanctions, and corruption. Second, the military strength of the regime’s most influential allies, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the ongoing regional-Israeli war has depleted key resources from these states. Thus, when the HTS military launched their offensive attack on the Assad regime, the state was too weak to fight back and their allies were too diminished to intervene.
As the new Syrian president Sharaa took office, he announced his plans for the transitional government. His first priority is to fill Syria’s power vacuum in government “in a legitimate and legal way” by rebuilding state institutions. Specifically, the reconstruction of the military and the development of economic infrastructure. This is crucial because studies have shown peace to be extremely fragile in states where power vacuums leave the government incapable of providing citizens necessary goods or services. Sharaa’s first step to fill the gap in leadership was the empowerment of a legislative council to draft a new legal code, replacing the suspended 2012 constitution and establishing a framework for transitional justice.
One of the first things Sharaa announced in office was the pursuit of transitional justice against “the criminals who shed Syrian blood and committed massacres and crimes.” Although his exact perpetrators are unspecified, he is likely referring to the political and military elite who targeted civilians during the ongoing Syrian civil war. In 2010, pro-democracy protests swept across the country as part of a larger regional movement called the Arab Spring. However, Assad responded with force, firing unarmed protesters and carrying out mass arrests. The peaceful movement transformed into a still-ongoing civil war, with casualties now reaching over half a million. The international community has responded by condemning the atrocities and human rights violations the regime has committed throughout the conflict.
Despite Sharaa’s vow to preserve “civil peace,” the safety of international refugees remains uncertain. As a result of the civil war, Syria has become the world’s largest refugee crisis, with an estimated 14 million civilians forced to flee. This is broken down into 7.4 million internally displaced persons; 5.5 million in the neighboring countries of Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt; and 850,000 in Germany. Immediately after Assad’s regime was toppled, many European countries pressed to return Syrian refugees to their home country. Additionally, others have stopped processing Syrian asylum applications.
However, with the state’s political fragility, analysts have argued against this move. First, the influx of returning Syrians would add pressure to the transitional government and could undermine the prospect of a successful transition. This is further exacerbated by the collapse of the Syrian pound due to political instability and a loss of investor confidence. Finally, the destruction from the war has destroyed the housing market, with entire neighborhoods in ruin. As such, the country would be ill-prepared to house an influx of returning Syrian refugees.
What does this all mean for Bashar al-Assad? Immediately after HTS assumed power, the leader fled the country to Russia. Yet recent negotiations between Syria’s interim government and Russian President Vladimir Putin signal that his asylum may not be secure. Since 2015, Russia has had a military presence in the state, and although there has been a transition in the political apparatus, it is too valuable for them to surrender. The Syrian state is particularly valuable because of its strategic geography and intrinsic wealth. That said, Russia has declined to comment on whether they would return Assad in order to secure their position.
Ultimately, the fate of the nation is extremely fragile and in an unpredictable position. Sharaa currently enjoys popular support, but should positive change not come soon, his grasp on power could be quickly undermined. Such a herculean national project requires the support of the international community, particularly lifting Assad-era sanctions to foster their economy and empower economic growth. With international support, Syria has the opportunity to embark on a path to recovery, but without external support, the window of opportunity could be lost.