In Russia, as snow mounds up by the feet and temperatures drop below zero, the fiery energy of the Russian people rages on stronger than ever. Hundreds of thousands of Russians across the country have been protesting in support of the Russian Opposition leader Alexei Navalny since early January.
Anti-Putin and pro-democracy protests are nothing new, as Russians have routinely become disenchanted and frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin and growing issues surrounding liberal democracy and free and fair elections. However, unlike the opposition movements of the past, these protests stand a chance in bringing about widespread social reform, and it’s not just due to Alexei Navalny’s fame and charisma.
Russia has been hit particularly hard t by the economic crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, and with no immediate end to the pandemic in sight, it’s uncertain when the country’s economic circumstances will improve. Millions of Russians are facing unemployment and dwindling savings are causing widespread resentment, fear, and anger towards the Russian government. Economic struggles alone are enough to bring people to protest, but the combination of economic strife, growing anger over Putin’s government, and unwavering support for Alexei Navalny is enough to create an unstoppable movement.
Alexei Navalny
Russian Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny is a lawyer and anti-corruption activist, as well as a fierce critic of Putin. He first gained notoriety back in 2008, when he started blogging about Russian politics and corruption within the state. Following his success in blogging and reporting, Navalny expanded his influence and methods into more serious corruption investigations, demonstrating his commitment and bravery.
Navalny’s most impressive anti-corruption work can be found on Youtube, where he reveals the investigative process of proving powerful Russian officials, such as former President Dmitri Medvedev and former Prosecutor General Chaika Yury, to be incredibly corrupt, such as using state funds to create personal, luxury villas. Navanly’s immense success in investigative journalism helped him establish the Anti-Corruption Foundation, where he and a team of other journalists carry out investigative work.
Throughout his career Navalny has frequently faced near death incidents and poisonings, frequently traced back to the Kremlin (although they deny such claims). Most recently, Navalny was nearly killed by a lethal nerve agent planted in his clothing before being rushed to an emergency treatment center in Germany. Alexei Navalny was immediately arrested upon his recovery and returned to Russia.
Protests
Navalny’s arrest and subsequent calls to rally on his social media drew the Russian people into the streets from St. Petersburg to Moscow to the smallest rural towns. Throughout January and February the Russian people took to the streets, and were frequently arrested and detained in mass numbers. Reports of police brutality are widespread amongst the protests, with photos and videos posted on social media showcasing police officers beating and torturing protesters. Researchers from Human Rights Watch suggest that the number of detainees at protests in Russia is higher than ever reported, finding that over 5,000 people were likely detained and arrested over the course of a single weekend. Once arrested, the detainees are placed in harsh conditions where they are frequently denied the right to food, water, and restrooms.
The Russian government has frequently faced pressure to address the demands of protestors calling for Navalny’s release. With no sign of the protests stopping, the Russian government has amped up arrests despite the peaceful actions of protestors, such as holdingin candlelit gatherings or walking arm in arm through the streets. However, the Kremlin should consider the other economic and political issues currently facing Russia. Unlike in previous times of outrage and anti-Putin sentiment, this time the Russian government will have to contend with the economic burdens caused by the COVID-19 pandemic which is drawing Russians out onto the streets.
A History of Anti-Putin Protests
Anger over Putin, corruption, and a lack of free and deomocratic elections in Russia is nothing new. From the time that Putin rose to power in 2000, Russians have routinely expressed outrage and anger over their leader.
In the past decade alone, Russians demonstrated their political rights and views against Putin multiple times. Starting in late 2011, following the state Duma elections, over 50,000 people across the country marched in protest of apparent fraud following the election results. For the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, anti-government sentiment and anger over Putin was openly expressed. These protests drew Russians together despite the wide range of political opinions and identities among them. The Kremlin responded as expected, denying the supposed election fraud and encouraging the arrests of protestors. The protestors demanded a cancellation of the recent election votes and pleaded for another election. Other demands included investigations into the corruption of the Chief of Electoral Commissions and a release of arrested prisoners.
Less than six months later, in May of 2012, protests commenced again, with Russians gathering in Bolotnaya Square to demand free and fair elections. These anti-Putin and anti-government marches became known as the “March of Millions.” Many were arrested and Human Rights Watch reported numerous instances of police brutality and unfair arrests.
While these protests eventually dwindled due to lack of follow-through at the hands of organizers, and severe repression of information by the Russian government, the Kremlin was still forced to acknowledge that for the first time since his inauguration, Putin could no longer rely on the neverending support of the Russian people.
At the heart of the 2011-2013 Russian protests was anger over a mismanaged democracy amongst urban, educated Russians. While the government refused to meet the demands of its people, it did create public works projects in hopes of both distracting the Russian people from the protests and restoring faith and pride in the Russian government. Numerous public works projects were created, including implementing urban renewal ventures consisting of improving city sidewalks, roads, and public parks.
The Kremlin continued to spend money in hopes of reigniting the Russian people’s national pride and sense of unity. Hosting national sports events such as the World Cup allowed Russians to cheer on their team while promoting pride for their country. The success of the Russian government’s ability to promote Russian nationalism and unify its people became known as the Rally Around the Flag Effect, and it heavily shaped Putin’s foreign policy approach.
The Rally Around the Flag Effect
The global response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was intense, critical, and threatening, but the sentiment within Russia could not have been more different. Following the annexation, Putin’s approval rate soared to a supposed 84%, garnering admiration from Russians across a variety of social classes, age ranges, careers and locations. Surveys from the time reveal that overall attitudes towards national pride, hope for the future, and support for the Kremlin all rose dramatically. The success of the Crimean annexation and Putin’s response to it led to the coining of the term “Rally Around the Flag”, in which Russians supposedly put aside their issues with the state to support Russia and Putin; yet in reality this is government propaganda, in the which the Kremlin distracts the Russian people by instilling them with nationalistic values.
However, at present the political and economic climate is vastly different. Putin and his government can no longer afford to throw money into public works projects in order to distract from the protests, and they lack the foreign policy capabilities to carry out a military event as dramatic and violent as the annexation of Crimea. Not only is the government much weaker, but it is becoming increasingly clear that Russia’s economic state, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, is increasingly the issue pushing Russians out onto the street in protest.
The Economic Effects of COVID-19 in Russia
Unsurprisingly, Russia has experienced devastating economic ramifications at both the national and local level in conjunction with the spread of COVID-19. The economic struggles caused by rising unemployment rates has affected Russians in both urban and rural regions. Russia has reported relatively low COVID-19 numbers, particularly in comparison with other European countries and the US; however, many experts speculate that these numbers have been heavily falsified and that Russian data on COVID-19 cases is likely three times higher than reported.
Despite their seemingly low number of COVID-19 cases, Russia cannot hide its economic struggles. The country’s GDP is likely to shrink by six percent from 2020 to 2021, and the country has already seen sharp increases in unemployment, lowered wages, banking struggles, and the shrinking of major industries. A decrease in trade and drop in oil prices is at the forefront of this economic recession. While some industries such as agriculture have managed to stay afloat, it is clear after almost a year since the first initial global shutdown that all aspects of Russia’s economy have been damaged, and in every region. This is particularly threatening to Putin’s government, who have always relied on their strongholds in smaller, conservative, rural areas.
Protests in support of Alexei Navanly have now been reported in over a hundred cities and towns, with the largest number in these smaller, rural areas. With all regions of the country erupting in protest, the likelihood of the government to repress these protests is lower than in earlier years. Statistically, rural areas are demonstrating a much higher turnout than in more urban areas. The effects of globalization have taken effect worldwide, including in the farming regions of Russia who are now showing increased anger over Putin than their urban peers in Moscow and St. Petersburg. This anger can also be attributed to the lack of economic relief reforms dedicated to agricultural regions both before and during the pandemic. Following the 2011-2013 protests, the Kremlin’s economic implementations mostly targeted cities, largely ignoring rural communities. It now appears as though this resentment at being ignored has finally reached its boiling point, as anti-Putin sentiment erupts across the countryside.
Critics have been quick to claim that Russian protestors stand no chance at achieving their goals, using earlier opposition protests as evidence. Nevertheless, those who doubt the might of the Russian people should keep in mind the underlying factors at the root of this issue. Unemployment and feelings of abandonment are powerful forces that will drive anyone to the streets, regardless of political devotion.
As the Kremlin continues to crack down on the protestors, the Russian government and the rest of the world should acknowledge the significance that the economic strife caused by COVID-19 has played throughout these protests. For the first time since Putin’s ascent to power, the Russian people actually stand a chance at achieving lasting reforms.