Ethiopia has long been seen as a source of stability within the Horn of Africa, a region that has been subject to several intra and inter-state conflicts. Especially in recent years, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has received international recognition for his role in reaching out to Eritrea in peace and attempting to usher in a new era of democracy in the country. However, this image was shattered on November 4th, when Prime Minister Ahmed launched a military operation in the northern region of Tigray, thus kickstarting a violent confrontation between the federal government and regional leadership. By November 28th, federal forces had taken control of Mekele, the regional capital, and declared victory. Despite this declaration, the confrontation between Tigray forces and Ahmed’s military has violently persisted. Despite the fact that this started with the Prime Minister accusing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the regional ruling party in Tigray, of attacking a government military base to steal artillery, it has spiraled into all-out conflict. As a result of the conflict, ethnic tensions have been exacerbated and there is an urgent humanitarian crisis with around 4.5 million people in need of aid and nearly half a million people displaced. But this conflict did not erupt spontaneously; it is the culmination of decades of autocratic and corrupt government rule, repression, inter-state conflict, and ethnic conflict.
A Build-Up to Conflict
The TPLF successfully fought the military dictatorship that rose to power in the 1970s and ascended to helm the leadership of Ethiopia in the early 1990s. The group specifically led a ruling coalition known as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. It consisted of four main parties and was split along ethnic lines, backing an approach known as ethnic federalism, with nine regional ethnic states and two federally administered city-states. This system was specifically designed so that ethnic groups could administer their own internal affairs and set up their own political institutions. It advocates for the right to self-determination, which includes the right to secede. It has arguably kept the country from descending into civil war, despite there being government repression, and has demonstrated that, for the most part, power has been fairly distributed from federal to regional governments. Meles Zenawi, a Tigrayan, led the country from the military dictatorship’s fall in 1991 to his death in 2012. By Zenawi’s time of death, the country had gained a reputation of stability within the region and had also experienced economic growth. After three decades of TPLF rule, anti-government protests in 2018 forced the party to step down. As a result, Prime Minister Ahmed was elected. The Prime Minister has received acclaim for his foreign policy, which specificially involved reaching out to Eritrea in a peace deal; this comes after decades of a “frozen” war and seemingly ended a lengthy border dispute. Despite this success, however, Ahmed’s time in office has not been unmarred. When he was elected to office, many Tigrayan politicians were purged from power and some were and some were charged with human rights abuses which immediately led to feelings of tension. The hostility was exacerbated by Prime Minister Ahmed’s attempt to centralize more power within the federal government. The Prime Minister characterized these attempts as a way to create more unity in the country, but Tigrayans have resisted. This contentious situation came to a boiling point in September, when Tigray held regional elections, defying the federal government’s decision not to hold them due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
What are the results of the conflict?
While federal forces were able to capture Tigray’s main towns, fighting has continued and a major humanitarian crisis is looming, with 4.5 million people in need of assistance. However, it is hard to say just how the situation is unfolding, as there has been a communications blackout since the fighting began in November. Most hospitals have been looted and destroyed in the fighting, thus spelling the collapse of health care. Banks have also closed their doors, meaning that people can no longer access money to pay for basic necessities. There have also been severe shortages of food and water. Approximately half a million people have been displaced, with 60,000 officially being labeled as refugees, fleeing into Sudan. As reported by the United Nations, by November 10th there were more than 14,000 refugees, half of them being children. According to these eyewitness accounts, Ethiopia’s military, Eritrean troops, and local ethnic militias are responsible for ethnic-based violence and large-scale sexual assault. The conflict has resulted in thousands of deaths and it has been characterized by the violence that has fallen along ethnic lines. Ethiopia’s air force bombed military and civilian infrastructure in Tigray, and Tigrayan officials and civilians have accused Eritrean troops of massacres. Indeed, the presence of massacres has been confirmed by Amnesty International. The United Nations has also corroborated reports of ethnic massacres in West Tigray. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has also reported that Tigrayan miliatiamen killed 600 Amhara civilians who were mostly day laborers. Furthermore, Tigrayans who have fled to Sudanese refugee camps say that Amhara militiamen have attacked many of their kin in West Tigray.
The role of Eritrea has also been a major focal point of this developing conflict. While the federal government has denied Eritrea’s role, eyewitnesses have testified that a large portion of the violence has occured at the hands of Eritrean troops. Many of them have attacked refugee camps and have abducted Eritrean asylum seekers, many of whom were seen as camp leaders. They have specifically targeted aid supplies and set fire to crops. They have also been accused of killing hundreds of civilians across various towns.
This humanitarian crisis is the evident result of a culmination of ethnic tensions that have been developing across many decades. At the end of August 2020, Genocide Watch issued a warning for Ethiopia. While it is difficult to discern what exactly is occuring due to the media blackout, the international community needs to ensure that this crisis isn’t developing into a genocide. If it has developed to the level of genoicde, international actors must take immediate action to ensure that no further lives are lost in this contentious conflict.
What can be done?
It’s easy to say that the best solution would be for Prime Minister Ahmed to reach out to Tigray’s forces to discuss ways to end the conflict and usher in peace. While that doesn’t seem imminent, solutions should be focusing on alleviating the humanitarian crisis and making sure people have basic necessities. This would entail lifting the communications blackout and allowing humanitarian agencies to enter the country to administer relief. These agencies would be able to deliver relief with more immediacy while the Prime Minister hypothetically works to bring more long-lasting stability. Additionally, refugees need to be prioritized as they have consistently been targeted. In order to protect this vulnerable population, Eritrean forces need to leave Ethiopia. While i looks like this conflict is far from over, international organizations need to prioritize getting relief to all of the people who have been adversely affected.