Since June of 2019, thousands of young Russians have been detained for participating in unsanctioned protests in Moscow. These protests aren’t like the Women’s March or the school strikes in the United States; they are generally unauthorized, meaning every individual who attends the demonstration can lawfully be arrested by the authorities. The stakes are higher, and desperation emanates from the massive, chanting crowds. The very air crackles with anticipation as thousands of Russian citizens all collectively think the same life-changing thoughts: the authorities are no longer our friends, and revolution is near.
Although these protests seem to have sprung out of nowhere, the tensions in Russia have been mounting for a long time due to the changing political climate. One of President Vladimir Putin’s most outspoken political opponents, Alexei Navalny, has been railing against corruption and political repression since 2008. He often spends short amounts of time in prison for arranging and attending unsanctioned protests. He has attempted to run for elected positions numerous times, including the Presidency, but has been prohibited from candidacy on several occasions due to convictions related to his activism. He has also, like many of President Vladimir Putin’s other political rivals, fallen mysteriously ill while in custody. As a political activist he is known for criticizing the authorities on various social media platforms, like Twitter and YouTube, and has been named one of the “most influential people on the internet” by Time magazine for his massive following, which has allowed him to connect with and mobilize young activists throughout Russia.
These young activists are the basis for the anti-government protests happening in Russia. They hail from the generation that was born during or after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some of them are students as young as sixteen years old, while the majority are college students and young professionals who, wanting to have a say in the future of their country, walked into a voting booth and were faced with the realization that their votes and their voices are being ignored by the authorities.
According to a federal law passed in 1999, “On the Election of Deputies of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation,” candidates do not have to be affiliated with a recognized political party, such as United Russia (Putin’s party) or the Communist Party (the second largest party in the Federal Assembly, Russia’s legislative body), in order to run for elected positions. However, many candidates who have attempted to run for positions both at the local and presidential level as independents or affiliates of one of United Russia’s opposing parties have had their registration rejected. In order to be registered for the election, candidates must petition for signatures from their constituencies. Once they have received the correct number of signatures, they must register their petition with the authorities, who verify the signatures and declare the candidate’s legitimacy. Despite collecting the minimum number of signatures, most of the candidates running in opposition to United Russia have had their registration denied on the alleged grounds that the signatures had been “faked.”
These incidents of alleged corruption are also occurring during a time of political change. The approval ratings of the current ruling party, United Russia, have dropped to a historic low: just 32 percent of Russians stated that they approved of the party in 2018. Many pro-government candidates chose not to run under the United Russia banner, afraid that affiliating with the party would negatively affect their chances of winning the election. Additionally, a Russian media startup “Proekt” reported that opposition and independent candidates were slated to win nine of the 45 Moscow districts in the local elections on September 9, according to polls. United Russia has been accused of outright corruption by many critics, including Navalny, and their image as the ruling party continues to worsen as wages stagnate, the middle class shrinks, the retirement age increases, and more Russians fall below the poverty line.
Although the younger generation of Russians have been outspoken in their desire for change, the corruption of the ruling party doesn’t just hurt the youth: older Russians feel the political and economic strain as well. According to an international Pew Research study, older generations are more likely to vote in elections than younger generations. They are, however, less likely to protest and become politically active than their younger counterparts. The study also links social media usage and political activism, stating that social media users are more likely to speak out on a broad range of political issues than people who do not use social media. The new generation of Russian activists support these findings, as growing up with the internet and cell phones has made it easier for them to utilize social media.
Many of the young Russians protesting and making their voices heard do not remember the fall of the Soviet Union, and they resent the fear and hesitation that older Russians feel when it comes to political change. It isn’t uncommon for older Russians, when asked about changing the leadership of the current administration, to reply, “If not Putin, then who?” They remember the time that immediately followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union (often referred to colloquially as “The Crazy Nineties”) in which the crime and unemployment rates skyrocketed as corruption and gangs gained control of the new country’s fledgling economy. They were surprised on New Year’s Eve in 1999 by former Russian President Boris Yeltsin announcing that he was leaving and was to be replaced with a young man that hardly anybody knew: Vladimir Putin. They recall how, after Putin took office, the economy started flourishing again and the crime rates started falling as more and more people found decent-paying jobs. Most importantly, older Russians remember the tendency for political activism and opposition to be crushed under the heel of the authorities, both before and after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Perhaps that’s why, despite being their age, the young Russian activists aren’t afraid to get their hands dirty in the fight for democratic freedoms. In a late-July protest in 2019, hundreds of protesters were arrested for participating in an unsanctioned demonstration. Dozens of others were brutalized by the police force, who had stood idly by until the climax of the protest. Live videos of the protest were streamed on Twitter, and video footage of the brutality and arrests have been seen by millions of people internationally. Two parents were threatened to have their children taken away by the authorities after being photographed and recognized at a protest, with “child endangerment” being cited as the primary cause of concern. Yet the younger generation continues to protest and put their lives and safety on the line. By ignoring the will of the authorities and showing up en masse to demonstrate their rights, young Russians are testing the boundaries of the permissible use of violence and stating their dedication to individual rights and democracy.
The very presence of state violence is nonetheless disconcerting, especially because the amount of protests and backlash from authorities is disproportionate to the importance of the most recent elections. Local councils have little power, and the elections for these positions are less important than elections for the Federal Assembly or the presidency. As such, the authorities should not be as concerned about the candidates and the protests as their actions have indicated. The authorities’ uneasiness may manifest from their slipping grasp on power as evidence of their corruption leaves United Russia’s approval ratings lower than ever. Consequently, this struggle to retain power over Russian citizens will, over time, result in a change in the way authorities respond to protests and demonstrations: either the demonstrations will have the intended effect and liberal reform will be put in place or conservative reforms will result in more and more people being arrested for speaking their minds. Should the latter outcome transpire, then United Russia will have an even more difficult time convincing Russian citizens--and the rest of the world--of their legitimacy.
Moreover, Vladimir Putin’s own approval rating is at risk if he allows any kind of conservative reforms to repress the rights of Russian citizens. Once at an all-time-high of 89 percent in the summer of 2015, his approval rating has since taken the plunge down to 68 percent. This number is still quite high, but the rather large dip in approval indicates the Russian public’s frustration with the government’s decisions. If he is able to quell the angry public, distance himself from United Russia and retain his approval rating, then Vladimir Putin could be in power for a long time. However, to do so, he’d have to ensure that the authorities’ response to protests and demonstrations remains proportionate, if unfair and illiberal.
Should Vladimir Putin lose his control of Russia’s political sphere, then he wouldn’t be the first Eastern European leader to be deposed in this millenium. After all, Russia isn’t the only post-Soviet state experiencing massive protests and political upsets. Anti-government protests and activism have been sweeping through much of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, including Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Moldova. Just like the protests in Russia, most of the activists are students and young adults who came of age after the fall of the Soviet Union. Furthermore, the activism in these countries has been majoritively successful. After the violent regime change in 2014, young Ukrainians created powerful political networks, and now Ukraine has the youngest government in Europe. Activists in Kazakhstan, previously having their right to assembly deeply oppressed by authorities, now openly and loudly gather for unsanctioned anti-government demonstrations. Little by little, the young, post-Soviet generation of political activists are changing the political landscape in their own countries.
It’s difficult to say where the new surge of political activism in Russia will lead, as there are many groups that all want different things. Some simply want to wrestle power away from corruption and place it back into safe hands; others want the entire political system dismantled and rebuilt from the ground up. As more young people begin to realize that they can turn their discontentment into action, the latter option seems less and less far-fetched. Although nobody can say for certain what the future holds for Vladimir Putin and his ruling party, it’s possible that, once the political atmosphere in Russia has reached its highest intensity, something very small could lead to the upheaval of Russia’s longest-standing president. The old, Soviet generations will no longer be leading the Russian Federation--the young, tired, angry, educated, politically active young people will.